How it works:

Every day (At least 5 days a week), we’ll provide a few promising sports bets. The way we come to these recommendations are by utilizing models to project various outcomes and then compare it to the odds of the sports books. If there’s projected value, we’ll take the bet! An example of this is the sports book predicting the Lakers to win with 45% likelihood, and our model predicting it to occur with 60% confidence. Because sports betting is high-variance, the more bets you make, the more opportunity you allow yourself to win. Since we are betting against the house odds, adjusting the amount we bet based on our edge, it’s suggested to take as many of the bets as possible. The reason volume matters is because it allows you to spread out your risk across many more bets, riding the waves of the market, and end up a winner in aggregate.

What’s a unit?

Recommendations are in the form of “units” - we use this to make bets scaled for every user. A “unit” is basically the amount of money you’re comfortable wagering, for most people is 1-5% of your total bankroll (If you have $1,000 total, a unit could be $10, betting 3.5 units would mean placing a $35 bet).

What if my sportsbook odds are different?

In a lot of cases, betting odds will shift throughout the day, what if the odds in the recommendations are different than yours? The way I look at odds movement is to convert odds to implied probabilities and calculate a percent difference. If the line has shifted minimally (1-5%), no worries, the recommendation still stands. If the line has shifted a little more (6-15%), adjust the unit recommendations up/down by the same percentage (If the line has decreased 10% a 3 unit bet recommendation changes to 3*0.9 = 2.7 units).

Current Record (08/11/2020)

83-68-4, +43 Units

Subscribe to A Bet A Day

Data Driven Sports Bets